A Trust Risk Dynamic Management Mechanism Based on Third-Party Monitoring for the Conflict-Eliminating Process of Social Network Group Decision Making

Abstract

Every decision may involve risks. Real-world risk issues are usually supervised by third parties. Decision-making may be affected by the absence of sufficient or reasonable trust or to the opposite, an unconditional, excessive, or blind trust, which is called trust risks. The conflict-eliminating process (CEP) aims to facilitate satisfactory consensus by decision makers (DMs) through continuous reconciliation between their opinion differences on the subject matter. This article addresses trust risks in CEP of social network group decision making (SNGDM) through third-party monitoring. A trust risk analysis-based conflict-eliminating model for SNGDM is developed. It is assumed that a third-party agency monitors the DMs’ credibility and performance, which is recorded in an objective evaluation matrix and multi-attribute trust assessment matrix (MTAM). A trust risk measurement methodology is proposed to classify the DMs’ different trust risk types and to measure the trust risk index (TRI) of a group of DMs. When TRI is unacceptable, a trust risk management mechanism that controls TRI is activated. Different management policies are applicable to DMs’ different trust risk types. There are two main methods: 1) dynamically update the MTAM based on DMs’ performance and 2) provide suggestions for modifying the DM’s information with high TRI. Besides, as part of the integrated CEP, this model includes an optimization approach to dynamically derive DMs’ reliable aggregation weights from their MTAM. Simulation experiments and an illustrative example support the feasibility and validity of the proposed model for managing trust risks in CEP of SNGDM.