Mathematical indices for the influence of risk factors on the lethality of a disease
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EpidemiologyComorbidityLethalityEqual attribution indexShapley value indexCOVID-19
Martínez, R., Sánchez-Soriano, J. Mathematical indices for the influence of risk factors on the lethality of a disease. J. Math. Biol. 83, 74 (2021). [https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-021-01700-4]
SponsorshipR&D&I project grants ECO2017-86245-P PID2020-114309GB-I00 MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033; "ERDF A way of making Europe"/EU MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 PGC2018-097965-B-I00; Junta de Andalucia P18-FR-2933; FEDER UGR A-SEJ-14-UGR20; Grupos PAIDI SEJ660; Generalitat Valenciana European Commission General Electric PROMETEO/2021/063
We develop a theoretical model to measure the relative relevance of different pathologies of the lethality of a disease in society. This approach allows a ranking of diseases to be determined, which can assist in establishing priorities for vaccination campaigns or prevention strategies. Among all possible measurements, we identify three families of rules that satisfy a combination of relevant properties: neutrality, irrelevance, and one of three composition concepts. One of these families includes, for instance, the Shapley value of the associated cooperative game. The other two families also include simple and intuitive indices. As an illustration, we measure the relative relevance of several pathologies in lethality due to COVID-19.