Identifying the Factors That Increase the Probability of an Injury or Fatal Traffic Crash in an Urban Context in Jordan

Abstract

The lack of robust studies carried out on urban roads in developing countries makes it difficult to enhance traffic safety, ensuring sustainable roads and cities. This study analyzes the contribution of a number of explanatory variables behind crashes involving injuries on arterial roads in Irbid (Jordan). Five binary logistic regression models were calibrated for a crash dataset from 2014–2018: one for the full database, and the others for the four main crash causes identified by Jordanian Traffic Police reports. The models show that whatever the crash cause, the three most significant factors linked to an injury or fatality lie in urban road sections that are in large-scale neighborhood areas, have fewer than six accesses per kilometer, and have a low traffic volume (under 500 veh/h/ln). Some of these results agree with previous studies in other countries. Jordan’s governmental agencies concerned with urban road safety might use these results to develop appropriate plans and implement priority actions for each crash cause, in addition to undertaking further research for comparative purposes.