Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over the Next Months Garrido Jiménez, José Manuel Rodríguez Serrano, Fernando COVID-19 Mathematical models Transmission dynamics Vaccination expectations Hospital’s resources COVID waves Mathematical models have been remarkable tools for knowing in advance the appropriate time to enforce population restrictions and distribute hospital resources. Here, we present a mathematical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Granada, Spain, taking into account the uncertainty of the phenomenon. In the model, the patients moving throughout the hospital’s departments (intra-hospitalary circuit) are considered in order to help to optimize the use of a hospital’s resources in the future. Two main seasons, September–April (autumn-winter) and May–August (summer), where the hospital pressure is significantly different, have been included. The model is calibrated and validated with data obtained from the hospitals in Granada. Possible future scenarios have been simulated. The model is able to capture the history of the pandemic in Granada. It provides predictions about the intra-hospitalary COVID-19 circuit over time and shows that the number of infected is expected to decline continuously from May without an increase next autumn–winter if population measures continue to be satisfied. The model strongly suggests that the number of infected cases will reduce rapidly with aggressive vaccination policies. The proposed study is being used in Granada to design public health policies and perform wise re-distribution of hospital resources in advance. 2021-05-18T06:48:25Z 2021-05-18T06:48:25Z 2021 info:eu-repo/semantics/article Garrido, J.M.; Martínez-Rodríguez, D.; Rodríguez-Serrano, F.; Sferle, S.-M.; Villanueva, R.-J. Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over Next Months. Mathematics 2021, 9, 1132. https:// doi.org/10.3390/math9101132 http://hdl.handle.net/10481/68542 10.3390/math9101132 eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Atribución 3.0 España MDPI