Detecting Pivotal Moments Using Changepoint Analysis of Noble Marriages during the Time of the Republic of Venice

Abstract

The Republic of Venice was one of the longest-lived states in modern history, and its stability and survival have been studied through many different angles. One of the main research angles is to try and find pivotal moments in its history that explain its eventual demise. In this paper, through the rigorous statistical analysis of a dataset of marriages by nobles in the Republic, we attempt to define a methodology for the detection of these events through mono and multivariate changepoint analysis, validating the proposed methodology through cross-validation of different procedures, as well as matching the results to historical events. Our analysis shows that these changepoints occur with statistical significance and that they match political and historical events. These results can be built upon for a better understanding of the historical causes of the success and failure of the Republic of Venice and, by extension, other states.