Combining multiple geostatistical analyses to assess the past, present, and future of fragile Mediterranean deltaic environments
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Rodrigo Comino, Jesús; Caballero Calvo, Andrés; Jiménez Olivencia, Yolanda; Porcel Rodríguez, LauraEditorial
Elsevier
Materia
Land spatial analysis Land management Geographic Information System Mediterranean coastal ecosystem Wetland
Date
2023-06-16Referencia bibliográfica
J. Rodrigo-Comino et al. Combining multiple geostatistical analyses to assess the past, present, and future of fragile Mediterranean deltaic environments. Journal of Geochemical Exploration 252 (2023) 107265[https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gexplo.2023.107265]
Sponsorship
COST Action LAND4FLOOD (No. 16209); COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology)Abstract
Littoral plains in general and those of the Mediterranean rivers and ramblas, are highly vulnerable territories.
Understanding the past and present conditions of these areas is the best strategy to design efficient land management
plans to prevent degradation such as pollutants, soil sealing, erosion, etc. in the near and medium
future. In this research, different mapping techniques (land-use changes in twelve different years using manually
digitalisation and field observations, from 1956 to 2019, and pattern analysis using ecological landscape indexes),
multivariate statistical analyses (Spearman rank coefficient and Principal Component Analysis), and
predictive models (Markov chain) are combined to assess the past, current, and future status of the V´elez River
delta (M´alaga province, Southern Spain), a representative vulnerable territory situated in the popular touristic
area of Costa del Sol. We also included a demographic analysis using annual population census data (current
inhabitants and projections) and a climate trend analysis (Mann-Kendall test) considering temperatures, precipitations
and wind data. Our results demonstrate that the drastic urbanization, including new settlements,
roads, and ways, has negatively impacted the delta area, even the alluvial plain, beaches, and natural sand
deposits. From 1956 to 2019, >70 ha of deltaic area have been lost. The largest category of land-use, cultivated
fields, accounted for up to 72.4 % of the total delta area in 1984. However, this was reduced to 41.1 % by 2019.
The alluvial plain and beaches/sand deposits started from 9.3 and 11.8 %, and decreased to 5.2 and 5.9 %,
respectively. Also, climate change (especially in temperature) could affect some spatial patterns. Predictive
models reveal that it is likely that abandoned spaces, sand deposits, and beaches, will be transformed into new
urban areas and, to a lesser extent, into cultivated fields. We concluded that the conservation of the cultivated
lands, although decreasing in the area over the studied period, obtained the highest correlation with the delta
conservation. Therefore, we affirm that efficient plans, which promote specific changes in land use, would
contribute to stopping the degradation of the delta such as pollution of natural areas or soil sealing. Specifically,
a plan should be developed to preserve sustainable agriculture and control urban sprawl