Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016
Metadatos
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MDPI
Materia
Point process modeling RETAS model Aftershock energy release Al Hoceima Morocco
Date
2022-08-31Referencia bibliográfica
Hamdache, M... [et al.]. Stochastic Modeling of the Al Hoceima (Morocco) Aftershock Sequences of 1994, 2004 and 2016. Appl. Sci. 2022, 12, 8744. [https://doi.org/10.3390/app12178744]
Patrocinador
Consejeria de Economia, Conocimiento, Empresa y Universidad, in the frame of the Programa Operativo FEDER Andalucia Junta de Andalucia CGL2016-80687-R B-RNM-301UGR18 RNM148 P18-RT-3275Résumé
The three aftershock sequences that occurred in Al Hoceima, Morocco, in May 1994
(Mw 6.0), February 2004 (Mw 6.4) and January 2016 (Mw 6.3) were stochastically modeled to investigate
their temporal and energetic behavior. A form of the restricted trigger model known as
the restricted epidemic type aftershock sequence (RETAS) was used for the temporal analysis of
the selected series. The best-determined fit models for each sequence differ based on the Akaike
information criteria. The revealed discrepancies suggest that, although the activated fault systems
are close (within 10 to 20 km), their stress regimes change and shift across each series. In addition, a
stochastic model was presented to study the strain release following a specific strong earthquake. This
model was constructed using a compound Poisson process and depicted the progression of the strain
release during the aftershock sequence. The proposed model was then applied to the data. After
the RETAS model was used to evaluate the behavior of the aftershock decay rate, the best-fit model
was obtained and integrated into the strain-release stochastic analysis. By detecting the potential
disparities between the observed data and model, the applied stochastic model of strain release
allows for a more comprehensive examination. Furthermore, comparing the observed and expected
cumulative energy release numbers revealed some variations at the start of all three sequences. This
demonstrates that significant aftershock clusters occur more frequently shortly after the mainshock at
the start of the sequence rather than if they are assumed to occur randomly.