Scenario archetypes in urban transport planning: Insights from the implementation of LRT systems

Abstract

The adaptation of transport concepts to changing urban conditions has rendered continuous transformation in the contexts, rationalities and type of decisions involved in urban transport planning. Foresight approaches in future studies offer flexible tools to capture transformations at such different levels. In this work, we explore pathways for the integration of future-scenario methods in transport planning, using the implementation of the Light Rail Transit (LRT) system in Granada (Spain) as a case in point. We applied the concept of “scenario archetype” to review both process-oriented and product-oriented elements in existing planning documents, assisted by a survey to local planning actors about the future of Granada's LRT. As a result, we suggest two main scenario archetypes, robust and flexible, in describing potential relationships between public transport projects and planning processes. Those archetypes entail different planning and communication environments, and therefore, integration pathways for using scenarios in envisioning the future of urban transport.