Limited role of spatial selfstructuring in emergent trade-offs during pathogen evolution
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Springer Nature
Fecha
2018-08-20Referencia bibliográfica
Buendía, V., Muñoz, M. A., & Manrubia, S. (2018). Limited role of spatial self-structuring in emergent trade-offs during pathogen evolution. Scientific reports, 8(1), 12476.
Patrocinador
This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad and FEDER funds of the EU through grants ViralESS (FIS2014-57686-P and FIS2017-84256-P). The internship of VB was financed by the Severo Ochoa Centers of Excellence Program (SEV-2013-0347).Resumen
Pathogen transmission and virulence are main evolutionary variables broadly assumed to be linked
through trade-offs. In well-mixed populations, these trade-offs are often ascribed to physiological
restrictions, while populations with spatial self-structuring might evolve emergent trade-offs. Here,
we reexamine a spatially-explicit, SIR model of the latter kind proposed by Ballegooijen and Boerlijst
with the aim of characterising the mechanisms causing the emergence of the trade-off and its structural
robustness. Using invadability criteria, we establish the conditions under which an evolutionary
feedback between transmission and virulence mediated by pattern formation can poise the system to
a critical boundary separating a disordered state (without emergent trade-off) from a self-structured
phase (where the trade-off emerges), and analytically calculate the functional shape of the boundary
in a certain approximation. Beyond evolutionary parameters, the success of an invasion depends
on the size and spatial structure of the invading and invaded populations. Spatial self-structuring is
often destroyed when hosts are mobile, changing the evolutionary dynamics to those of a well-mixed
population. In a metapopulation scenario, the systematic extinction of the pathogen in the disordered
phase may counteract the disruptive effect of host mobility, favour pattern formation and therefore
recover the emergent trade-off.