Simple and Low-Cost Procedure for Monthly and Yearly Streamflow Forecasts during the Current Hydrological Year
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Materia
Integrated water resources management Support to decision-making process Streamflow forecast Simple and low-cost forecasting model Guadalquivir River Basin Genil River
Date
2018-08-05Referencia bibliográfica
Delgado Ramos, F.; Hervás-Gámez, C. Simple and Low-Cost Procedure for Monthly and Yearly Streamflow Forecasts during the Current Hydrological Year. Water 2018, 10, 1038; doi:10.3390/w10081038.
Patrocinador
This research was funded by Fundación Centro Andaluz de Investigaciones del Agua (CETAQUA) and EMASAGRA S.A.Résumé
Accurately forecasting streamflow values is essential to achieve an efficient, integrated
water resources management strategy and to provide consistent support to water decision-makers.
We present a simple, low-cost, and robust approach for forecasting monthly and yearly streamflows
during the current hydrological year, which is applicable to headwater catchments. The procedure
innovatively combines the use of well-known regression analysis techniques, the two-parameter
Gamma continuous cumulative probability distribution function and the Monte Carlo method.
Several model performance statistics metrics (including the Coefficient of Determination R2;
the Root-Mean-Square Error RMSE; the Mean Absolute Error MAE; the Index of Agreement IOA;
the Mean Absolute Percent Error MAPE; the Coefficient of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE; and the
Inclusion Coefficient IC) were used and the results showed good levels of accuracy (improving as the
number of observed months increases). The model forecast outputs are the mean monthly and yearly
streamflows along with the 10th and 90th percentiles. The methodology has been successfully applied
to two headwater reservoirs within the Guadalquivir River Basin in southern Spain, achieving an
accuracy of 92% and 80% in March 2017. These risk-based predictions are of great value, especially
before the intensive irrigation campaign starts in the middle of the hydrological year, whenWater
Authorities have to ensure that the right decision is made on how to best allocate the available water
volume between the different water users and environmental needs.