Assessing climate risk to support urban forests in a changing climate Esperon-Rodriguez, Manuel Cariñanos González, Paloma Tree failure Tree mortality Urban planning Urban sustainability Urban trees We thank Leslie Brandt and Gregory McPherson (USDA Forest Service, USA), Jakub Kronenberg (University of Lodz, Poland), Shawn Landry (University of South Florida, USA) and Per Anker Pedersen (Faculty of Landscape and Society, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) for their thoughts and contributions. MER, PR, SP and MGT thank Leigh Staas (Macquarie University) and funding from the Hort Frontiers Green Cities Fund, part of the Hort Frontiers strategic partnership initiative developed by Hort Innovation, with coinvestment from Macquarie University, Western Sydney University and the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment and contributions from the Australian Government. DNB acknowledges support from the Research Council of Norway to the ENABLE project through the BiodivERsA COFUND 2015-2016 call for research proposals. BW acknowledges support from FORMAS (dia.nr 2016-20098). Finally, we thank the anonymous reviewers for their critical observations and thoughtful contributions that improved this work. The opinions and findings expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent any official USDA or US Government determination or policy. Societal Impact Statement Globally, cities are planning for resilience through urban greening initiatives as governments understand the importance of urban forests in improving quality of life and mitigating climate change. However, the persistence of urban forests and the ecosystem benefits they provide are threatened by climate change, and systematic assessments of causes of tree dieback and mortality in urban environments are rare. Long-term monitoring studies and adaptive management are needed to identify and prevent climate change-driven failures and mortality. Research and monitoring when coupled with systematic forecasting will enable governments to incorporate climate change resilience into urban forestry planning. Future scenarios in which urban forests are resilient or in decline will depend on the management and planning actions we make today. The management of urban forests is a key element of resilience planning in cities across the globe. Urban forests provide ecosystem services as well as other nature-based solutions to 4.2 billion people living in cities. However, to continue to do so effectively, urban forests need to be able to thrive in an increasingly changing climate. Trees in cities are vulnerable to extreme heat and drought events, which are predicted to increase in frequency and severity under climate change. Knowledge of species' vulnerability to climate change, therefore, is crucial to ensure provision of desired ecosystem benefits, improve species selection, maintain tree growth and reduce tree mortality, dieback and stress in urban forests. Yet, systematic assessments of causes of tree dieback and mortality in urban environments are rare. We reviewed the state of knowledge of tree mortality in urban forests globally, finding very few frameworks that enable detection of climate change impacts on urban forests and no long-term studies assessing climate change as a direct driver of urban tree dieback and mortality. The effects of climate change on urban forests remain poorly understood and quantified, constraining the ability of governments to incorporate climate change resilience into urban forestry planning. 2022-02-01T10:37:56Z 2022-02-01T10:37:56Z 2022-01-18 journal article Esperon-Rodriguez, M., Rymer, P. D., Power, S. A., Barton, D. N., Cariñanos, P., Dobbs, C., Eleuterio, A. A., Escobedo, F. J., Hauer, R., Hermy, M., Jahani, A., Onyekwelu, J. C., Östberg, J., Pataki, D., Randrup, T. B., Rasmussen, T., Roman, L. A., Russo, A., Shackleton, C., … Tjoelker, M. G. (2022). Assessing climate risk to support urban forests in a changing climate. Plants, People, Planet, 1–13. [https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10240] http://hdl.handle.net/10481/72584 10.1002/ppp3.10240 eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ open access Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España Wiley