A Likelihood Approach to Bornhuetter–Ferguson Analysis Elpidorou, Valandis Margraf, Carolin Martínez Miranda, María Dolores Nielsen, Bent Chain ladder Bornhuetter–Ferguson Maximum likelihood Exponential families Canonical parameters Prior knowledge A new Bornhuetter–Ferguson method is suggested herein. This is a variant of the traditional chain ladder method. The actuary can adjust the relative ultimates using externally estimated relative ultimates. These correspond to linear constraints on the Poisson likelihood underpinning the chain ladder method. Adjusted cash flow estimates were obtained as constrained maximum likelihood estimates. The statistical derivation of the new method is provided in the generalised linear model framework. A related approach in the literature, combining unconstrained and constrained maximum likelihood estimates, is presented in the same framework and compared theoretically. A data illustration is described using a motor portfolio from a Greek insurer. 2020-01-17T13:40:06Z 2020-01-17T13:40:06Z 2019-12-10 info:eu-repo/semantics/article Elpidorou, V., Margraf, C., Martínez-Miranda, M. D., & Nielsen, B. (2019). A Likelihood Approach to Bornhuetter–Ferguson Analysis. Risks, 7(4), 119. http://hdl.handle.net/10481/58899 10.3390/risks7040119 eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Atribución 3.0 España MDPI