Financial governance and subcontracting in US defence firms: a predictive model for public accountability Teruel-Gutiérrez, Ricardo Carreres-Prieto, Daniel Molina-Moreno, Valentín Gálvez-Sánchez, Francisco Jesús accountability defence contracting environmental, social and governance (ESG) indicators financial governance public procurement Este es un manuscrito aceptado de un artículo publicado por Taylor & Francis en Public Money & Management el 31 de octubre de 2025 disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1080/09540962.2025.2579076 This article advances empirical understanding of subcontracting behaviour in US defence procurement by integrating financial, contractual, and governance variables within an interpretable machine-learning framework. Using decision tree models trained on a decade of contract and accounting data for 32 defence firms, it predicts annual subcontracting intensity and identifies the most influential predictors—cost of goods sold, operating margin, D&A, and common stock. The analysis reveals that cost structure dominates, while liquidity and governance indicators refine predictive accuracy, confirming multi-channel interactions among incentives, transparency, and capacity. Methodologically, the study demonstrates how rule-based predictive models can translate financial records into oversight benchmarks aligned with principal–agent and transaction-cost theories. Substantively, it links financial discipline, governance quality, and accountability, offering a transparent, replicable approach for future research on predictive regulation in high-risk contracting environments. 2025-11-04T09:55:17Z 2025-11-04T09:55:17Z 2025-10-31 journal article Teruel-Gutiérrez, R., Carreres-Prieto, D., Molina-Moreno, V., & Gálvez-Sánchez, F. J. (2025). Financial governance and subcontracting in US defence firms: a predictive model for public accountability. Public Money & Management, 1-10. https://hdl.handle.net/10481/107735 https://doi.org/10.1080/09540962.2025.2579076 eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ embargoed access Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional Public Money & Management