Promoting digital traceability in agriculture: A predictive approach to adoption and policy design in the olive sector Parra-López, Carlos Reina-Usuga, Liliana García-García, Guillermo Carmona-Torres, Carmen ADOPT model Agriculture 4.0 Digitalisation Innovation Olive The authors are grateful for the financial support received from the Institute of Agricultural and Fisheries Research and Training (IFAPA) through the research project “Digital transformation of the olive sector in Andalusia: Systemic, structural and functional analysis to promote its development (digitalOli)” (PR.AVA.AVA2019.009), co-financed at 80 % by the European Regional Development Fund within the FEDER Operational Programme of Andalusia 2014–2020. Guillermo Garcia-Garcia acknowledges the Grant ‘Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) Postdoctoral Fellowship’ with Grant agreement ID: 101052284. Digital traceability systems (DTS) are essential for improving food safety, quality control and transparency in agricultural supply chains, thereby enhancing consumer health and confidence. Despite its potential, the adoption of DTS in traditional agricultural sectors remains limited due to several challenges. This study examines the adoption and diffusion of DTS in the olive sector in Andalusia, Spain - a region critical to global olive production - using the Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool (ADOPT). The study predicts moderate diffusion of DTS in the long term. Key factors influencing adoption are identified, including profitability, enterprise scale, ease and convenience, existing skills and knowledge, and the evaluability and complexity of DTS. A number of policy measures are proposed to increase DTS adoption. These include financial incentives, support strategies for large enterprises, technology simplification, highlighting environmental benefits, risk management initiatives, skills development and training, and strengthening advisory services. This research contributes to the understanding of digital transformation in agriculture, especially in traditional agricultural sectors. It highlights the need for adaptable policy frameworks that take into account the different needs of farmers and technological advances. 2025-03-10T07:35:31Z 2025-03-10T07:35:31Z 2025 journal article Published version: Parra-López, Carlos et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change Volume 215, June 2025, 124077. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124077 https://hdl.handle.net/10481/102931 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124077 eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ embargoed access Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional Elsevier