From diesel reliance to sustainable power in Iraq: optimized hybrid microgrid solutions

Abstract

This study investigates Iraq’s challenging electricity landscape, exacerbated by the cumulative impacts of four wars, leading to daily power outages. The reliance on neighborhood diesel generators (NDG) as a temporary fix is critically assessed, with a strong expert consensus via the Delphi method advocating for a transition to solar photovoltaic (SPV) panels. The Delphi survey involved 20 experts, with 85% agreeing on the necessity of this transition, and high consensus (90% or higher) achieved on key questions regarding the inadequacy of NDG and the suitability of SPV as a replacement. The scarcity of local load data prompted the adaptation of Spain’s load profiles to Iraq using the innovative Rosetta transform, identifying the optimal number of SPV panels needed for low, base, and high consumption scenarios as 7, 9, and 11 panels, respectively. In a first approach to the viability of such an SPV installation, it is deduced that the minimum prices per kWh should be between $0.106 and $0.078, depending on the scenario, for it to be viable, well above the current prices in Iraq. A deeper analysis was then performed to evaluate Hybrid Microgrid Systems (HMGS) integrating SPVs, batteries and gasoline generators, both off-grid and grid-connected, and taking into account NDG-related savings. This analysis evidenced the viability of a grid-connected HMGS, leveraging SPV and battery storage, as the most economically viable solution, achieving payback periods up to 3.6 years in the best case. This research underscores the need for a policy shift towards sustainable energy solutions in Iraq and similar contexts, highlighting the technical and economic advantages of adopting clean, renewable energy systems over traditional NDG, and paving the way for a sustainable energy future.