Solar tower power generation under future attenuation and climate scenarios

Abstract

This work presents a novel analysis of the potential impact of atmospheric attenuation in the performance of solar tower plants for future climate change scenarios (2030–2060). Atmospheric attenuation has been estimated from aerosol optical depth information in CMIP6 climatic models for several scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic in terms of mitigation actions taken). Atmospheric attenuation data derived from CMIP6 models was evaluated using the extensive and reliable experimental database at PSA (Plataforma Solar de Almería). Detailed modeling of a solar tower plant is also performed for the conditions at PSA showing a decrease in annual power production less than 2 % for 2030–2060 period. A global impact of atmospheric attenuation is analyzed in relative terms and global maps of future attenuation shows the specific regions more adversely affected in the optimistic and pessimistic future scenarios. According to impact of atmospheric attenuation in solar field efficiency, these results may help in the future planning of deployment for solar tower plants.