Electoral scenarios of success for anti-establishment political parties in Western Europe: a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Abstract

The aim of this research is to identify the different electoral scenarios of success for anti-establishment political parties in Western Europe. To this end, a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis has been carried out in 26 national elections of European countries held between 2010 and 2015. Hypotheses from the demand side and supply side have been tested. Results suggest that high levels of dissatisfaction with the performance of democracy and the state of the economy, distrust towards parties and politicians, as well as the presence of ‘coaligence’ (coalitions and convergence) in proportional electoral contexts, are favourable scenarios to these political parties. These results are coherent with some arguments found in the literature that state how anti-establishment actors present themselves as the only truly democratic actors and the only real political alternative.