The role of the surface evapotranspiration in regional climate modelling: Evaluation and near-term future changes

Abstract

Surface evapotranspiration (SFCEVP) plays an essential role in the climate, being the link between hydrological and energy cycles. Therefore, how it is approximated and its implication in the regional climate are important aspects to understand the effects of climate change, especially in transitional zones such as the Iberian Peninsula (IP). This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of the SFCEVP using a regional climate model (RCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To this purpose, a set of WRF simulations were completed using different driving data. On the first hand, a recent present (1980–2017) simulation driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis was carried out to evaluate the suitability of the RCM performance. On the other hand, two global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 initiative, the CESM1 and the MPI-ESM-LR, were used as driving data to evaluate the GCM-RCM coupling, which is essential to climate change applications. Finally, projected changes were also investigated for a near-term future (2021–2050) paradigm. In general, the results pointed out the WRF model as a valuable tool to study the spatiotemporal patterns of the SFCEVP in the IP, showing an overall and acceptable ability at different spatial and temporal scales. Concerning projections, the results indicate that the IP is likely to undergo significant changes in the SFCEVP in the near future. These changes will be more apparent over the southernmost, and particularly during spring and summer, being in the latter season the SFCEVP fundamentally reduced. These results agree with projected changes in soil moisture, which is probably associated with changes in precipitation patterns. Additionally, the results reveal the major role of SFCEVP in modulating the climate over this region, which is involved in the complex land-atmosphere processes.