Assessing regional convergence of the size of middle classes in Euro-Mediterranean countries

Abstract

Historically, Euro-Mediterranean European countries have presented high levels of intra- and interregional socio-economic inequalities and are regular recipients of financial support under European Union Cohesion Policy. This paper provides evidence of regional convergence in the size of lower- and upper-middle-income classes across regions of France, Greece, Italy and Spain for the period 2004-17. Our results also reveal that changes in class size in neighbouring regions are associated with changes in the same direction in the lower- and upper-middle classes of the region of interest. As regards growth of class size in neighbouring regions, the convergence process is offset in both middle-income groups, but only partially for the upper-middle class. Furthermore, the economic cycle affects the process of regional convergence in the size of the middle class, although the effects are non-homogeneous for both middle-class groups. While increases or decreases in gross domestic product (GDP) do not seem to be closely related to upper-middle-class size, relatively persistent decreases rather than increases in GDP over time tend to be more linked to lower-middle-class size. These findings point to significant differences in the convergence dynamics between lower- and upper-middle classes, with the former being more sensitive to both neighbouring regions and the business cycle.