Long-term forecast of thermal mortality with climate warming in riverine amphipods
Metadatos
Afficher la notice complèteEditorial
Wyley
Materia
Climate vulnerability Heat tolerance Oxygen limitation Thermal biology Thermal safety margin Water quality
Date
2023-07-04Referencia bibliográfica
Verberk, W. C. E. P., Hoefnagel, K. N., Peralta-Maraver, I., Floury, M., & Rezende, E. L. (2023). Long-term forecast of thermal mortality with climate warming in riverine amphipods. Global Change Biology, 00, 1–11. [https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16834]
Patrocinador
ANID PIA/BASAL FB0002; Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico, Grant/Award Number: 1211113; Ministerio de Ciencia e Inovación, Grant/Award Number: Juan de la Cierva-formación Fellowship; Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, Grant/ Award Number: 016.161.321Résumé
Forecasting long-term
consequences of global warming requires knowledge on thermal
mortality and how heat stress interacts with other environmental stressors on
different timescales. Here, we describe a flexible analytical framework to forecast
mortality risks by combining laboratory measurements on tolerance and field temperature
records. Our framework incorporates physiological acclimation effects,
temporal scale differences and the ecological reality of fluctuations in temperature,
and other factors such as oxygen. As a proof of concept, we investigated the heat
tolerance of amphipods Dikerogammarus villosus and Echinogammarus trichiatus in the
river Waal, the Netherlands. These organisms were acclimated to different temperatures
and oxygen levels. By integrating experimental data with high-resolution
field
data, we derived the daily heat mortality probabilities for each species under different
oxygen levels, considering current temperatures as well as 1 and 2°C warming
scenarios. By expressing heat stress as a mortality probability rather than a upper
critical temperature, these can be used to calculate cumulative annual mortality, allowing
the scaling up from individuals to populations. Our findings indicate a substantial
increase in annual mortality over the coming decades, driven by projected
increases in summer temperatures. Thermal acclimation and adequate oxygenation
improved heat tolerance and their effects were magnified on longer timescales.
Consequently, acclimation effects appear to be more effective than previously recognized
and crucial for persistence under current temperatures. However, even in
the best-case
scenario, mortality of D. villosus is expected to approach 100% by
2100, while E. trichiatus appears to be less vulnerable with mortality increasing to
60%. Similarly, mortality risks vary spatially: In southern, warmer rivers, riverine animals
will need to shift from the main channel toward the cooler head waters to avoid
thermal mortality. Overall, this framework generates high-resolution
forecasts on
how rising temperatures, in combination with other environmental stressors such as
hypoxia, impact ecological communities.