The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain
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Mendoza Fernández, Antonio Jesús; Fernández Ceular, Ángel; Alcaraz Segura, Domingo; Peñas De Giles, JulioEditorial
MDPI
Materia
Diversity loss Fine-scale ecological niche modeling Global change Moehringia fontqueri Mountain cliff escarpments Reproductive success Sierra Nevada (Spain)
Date
2022-11-22Referencia bibliográfica
Mendoza-Fernández, A.J... [et al.]. The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain. Plants 2022, 11, 3193. [https://doi.org/10.3390/plants11233193]
Sponsorship
(UAL2020-RNM-B2007, I+D+i UAL-FEDER); Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación through the project CGL2010-16357; (LifeWatch-2019-10-UGR-01)Abstract
Mediterranean high-mountain endemic species are particularly vulnerable to climatic
changes in temperature, precipitation and snow-cover dynamics. Sierra Nevada (Spain) is a biodiversity
hotspot in the western Mediterranean, with an enormous plant species richness and endemicity.
Moehringia fontqueri is a threatened endemic plant restricted to north-facing siliceous rocks along a
few ridges of the eastern Sierra Nevada. To guide conservation actions against climate change effects,
here we propose the simultaneous assessment of the current reproductive success and the possible
species’ range changes between current and future climatic conditions, assessing separately different
subpopulations by altitude. Reproductive success was tested through the seed-set data analysis. The
species’ current habitat suitability was modeled in Maxent using species occurrences, topographic,
satellite and climatic variables. Future habitat suitability was carried out for two climatic scenarios
(RCP 2.6 and 8.5). The results showed the lowest reproductive success at the lowest altitudes, and
vice versa at the highest altitudes. Habitat suitability decreased by 80% from current conditions to the
worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5). The lowest subpopulations were identified as the most vulnerable to
climate change effects while the highest ones were the nearest to future suitable habitats. Our simultaneous
assessment of reproductive success and habitat suitability aims to serve as a model to guide
conservation, management and climate change mitigation strategies through adaptive management
to safeguard the persistence of the maximum genetic pool of Mediterranean high-mountain plants
threatened by climate change.