Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies
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Copernicus
Fecha
2022-11-09Referencia bibliográfica
Sebok, E... [et al.]. Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625, [https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022], 2022
Patrocinador
European Commission European Commission Joint Research Centre 690462Resumen
Various methods are available for assessing uncertainties
in climate impact studies. Among such methods,
model weighting by expert elicitation is a practical
way to provide a weighted ensemble of models for specific
real-world impacts. The aim is to decrease the influence of
improbable models in the results and easing the decisionmaking
process. In this study both climate and hydrological
models are analysed, and the result of a research experiment
is presented using model weighting with the participation of
six climate model experts and six hydrological model experts.
For the experiment, seven climate models are a priori
selected from a larger EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional
Downscaling Experiment – European Domain) ensemble
of climate models, and three different hydrological
models are chosen for each of the three European river
basins. The model weighting is based on qualitative evaluation
by the experts for each of the selected models based on
a training material that describes the overall model structure
and literature about climate models and the performance of
hydrological models for the present period. The expert elicitation process follows a three-stage approach, with two individual
rounds of elicitation of probabilities and a final group
consensus, where the experts are separated into two different
community groups: a climate and a hydrological modeller
group. The dialogue reveals that under the conditions of the
study, most climate modellers prefer the equal weighting of
ensemble members, whereas hydrological-impact modellers
in general are more open for assigning weights to different
models in a multi-model ensemble, based on model performance
and model structure. Climate experts are more open
to exclude models, if obviously flawed, than to put weights
on selected models in a relatively small ensemble. The study
shows that expert elicitation can be an efficient way to assign
weights to different hydrological models and thereby reduce
the uncertainty in climate impact. However, for the climate
model ensemble, comprising seven models, the elicitation in
the format of this study could only re-establish a uniform
weight between climate models.