Analyzing the extremization of opinions in a general framework of bounded confidence and repulsion

Abstract

In the bounded confidence framework, agents’ opinions evolve as a result of interactions with other agents having similar opinions. Thus, consensus or fragmentation of opinions can be reached, but not extremization (the evolution of opinions towards an extreme value). In contrast, when repulsion mechanisms are at work, agents with distant opinions interact and repel each other, leading to extremization. This work proposes a general opinion dynamics framework of bounded confidence and repulsion, which includes social network interactions and agent-independent time-varying rationality. We extensively analyze the performance of our model to show that the degree of extremization among a population can be controlled by the repulsion rule, and social networks promote extreme opinions. Agent-based rationality and time-varying adaptation also bear a strong impact on opinion dynamics. The high accuracy of our model is determined in a real-world social network well referenced in the literature, the Zachary Karate Club (with a known ground truth). Finally, we use our model to analyze the extremization of opinions in a real-world scenario, in Spain: a marketing action for the Netflix series “Narcos”.