Analysis of climate change impact on the preservation of heritage elements in historic buildings with a deficient indoor microclimate in warm regions

Abstract

Heritage preservation presents uncertainties in the global warming context. Both predicting the performance of environmental variables within the built environment and assessing the preservation conditions of heritage elements are today something of a challenge. Based on current monitorings, this study uses artificial intelligence to predict environmental performance in future scenarios. In addition, heritage elements are assessed according to threshold preservation values. The Chapel of the University of Seville was chosen as case study, applying both the threshold values from UNI 10829 and the performance index (PI) to assess the indoor environmental conditions. A total of 9 environmental treatment zones were identified according to temperature and humidity. To estimate the variables, the multilayer perceptron (MLP) was monitored and applied considering the time series of A2 future scenarios in each decade of the 21st century. The current MLP performances were analysed, thus showing a progressive reduction of the PI inside the church: at the end of the century, PI values oscillated between 6.6 and 6.8% in wooden objects, and between 1.8 and 2.3% in paintings. The results also showed a progressive increase in the number of hours and distance with respect to the optimal preservation values in the zones with a greater temperature and relative humidity, with cooling and dehumidification being the most effective strategies. This study represents a progress towards the most appropriate heritage preservation strategies by using an extrapolated methodology considering the climate change effect.