Lean Pattern in an Altitude Range Shift of a Tree Species: Abies pinsapo Boiss
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AuthorGonzález Hernández, Antonio; Nieto Lugilde, Diego; Peñas De Giles, Julio; Alba Sánchez, María Francisca
Ecological nicheLeading edgeMigrationPersistenceTrailing edge
González-Hernández, A.; Nieto-Lugilde, D.; Peñas, J.; Alba-Sánchez, F. Lean Pattern in an Altitude Range Shift of a Tree Species: Abies pinsapo Boiss. Forests 2021, 12, 1451. https://doi.org/10.3390/ f12111451
SponsorshipThis research was funded by (i) Spanish government, State R&D Program Oriented to the Challenges of the Society: MED-REFUGIA Research Project (RTI2018-101714-B-I00); (ii) Andalusian Plan for Research, Development and Innovation: OROMEDREFUGIA Research Project (P18-RT4963); (iii) ERDF Operational Programme in Andalusia (EU regional programme): RELIC-FLORA 2 Research Project (B-RNM-404-UGR18); and (iv) State Program for the Promotion of Scientific Research and Excellence Technique: PALEOPINSAPO Research Project (CSO2017-83576-P). The APC was funded by (i) Spanish government, State R&D Program Oriented to the Challenges of the Society: MED-REFUGIA Research Project (RTI2018-101714-B-I00); and (ii) Andalusian Plan for Research, Development and Innovation: OROMEDREFUGIA Research Project (P18-RT-4963).
Organisms modify their geographical distributions in response to changes in environmental conditions, or modify their affinity to such conditions, to avoid extinction. This study explored the altitudinal shift of Abies pinsapo Boiss. in the Baetic System. We analysed the potential distribution of the realised and reproductive niches of A. pinsapo populations in the Ronda Mountains (Southern Spain) by using species distribution models (SDMs) for two life stages within the current populations. Then, we calculated the species’ potential altitudinal shifts and identified the areas in which the processes of persistence and migration predominated. The realised and reproductive niches of A. pinsapo are different to one another, which may indicate a displacement in its altitudinal distribution owing to changes in the climatic conditions of the Ronda Mountains. The most unfavourable conditions for the species indicate a trailing edge (~110 m) at the lower limit of its distribution and a leading edge (~55 m) at the upper limit. Even though the differences in the altitudinal shifts between the trailing and leading edges will not cause the populations to become extinct in the short term, they may threaten their viability if the conditions that are producing the contraction at the lower limit persist in the long term.