Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model
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Martínez Salvador, Alberto; Millares Valenzuela, Agustín; Eekhout, Joris P. C.; Conesa García, CarmeloEditorial
Universidad de Granada
Materia
Climatic change SWAT model EURO-CORDEX Bias correction methods Segura basin Ephemeral streams
Date
2021Referencia bibliográfica
Martínez-Salvador, A.; Millares, A.; Eekhout, J.P.C.; Conesa-García, C. Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model. Sustainability 2021, 13, 7120. https://doi.org/10.3390/ su13137120
Sponsorship
ERDF/Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities—State Research Agency/Project CGL2017-84625-C2-1-R (CCAMICEM); State Program for Research, Development and Innovation Focused on the Challenges of SocietyAbstract
This research studies the effect of climate change on the hydrological behavior of two
semi-arid basins. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used with
the simulation of two future climate change scenarios, one Representative Concentration Pathway
moderate (RCP 4.5) and the other extreme (RCP 8.5). Three future periods were considered: close
(2019–2040), medium (2041–2070), and distant (2071–2100). In addition, several climatic projections of the EURO-CORDEX model were selected, to which different bias correction methods were
applied before incorporation into the SWAT model. The statistical indices for the monthly flow
simulations showed a very good fit in the calibration and validation phases in the Upper Mula
stream (NS = 0.79–0.87; PBIAS = −4.00–0.70%; RSR = 0.44–0.46) and the ephemeral Algeciras stream
(NS = 0.78–0.82; PBIAS = −8.10–−8.20%; RSR = 0.4–0.42). Subsequently, the impact of climate change
in both basins was evaluated by comparing future flows with those of the historical period. In the
RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, by the end of the 2071–2100 period, the flows of the Upper Mula
stream and the ephemeral Algeciras stream will have decreased by between 46.3% and 52.4% and
between 46.6% and 55.8%, respectively.