Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model
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AuthorMartínez Salvador, Alberto; Millares Valenzuela, Agustín; Eekhout, Joris P. C.; Conesa García, Carmelo
Universidad de Granada
Climatic changeSWAT modelEURO-CORDEXBias correction methodsSegura basinEphemeral streams
Martínez-Salvador, A.; Millares, A.; Eekhout, J.P.C.; Conesa-García, C. Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model. Sustainability 2021, 13, 7120. https://doi.org/10.3390/ su13137120
SponsorshipERDF/Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities—State Research Agency/Project CGL2017-84625-C2-1-R (CCAMICEM); State Program for Research, Development and Innovation Focused on the Challenges of Society
This research studies the effect of climate change on the hydrological behavior of two semi-arid basins. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used with the simulation of two future climate change scenarios, one Representative Concentration Pathway moderate (RCP 4.5) and the other extreme (RCP 8.5). Three future periods were considered: close (2019–2040), medium (2041–2070), and distant (2071–2100). In addition, several climatic projections of the EURO-CORDEX model were selected, to which different bias correction methods were applied before incorporation into the SWAT model. The statistical indices for the monthly flow simulations showed a very good fit in the calibration and validation phases in the Upper Mula stream (NS = 0.79–0.87; PBIAS = −4.00–0.70%; RSR = 0.44–0.46) and the ephemeral Algeciras stream (NS = 0.78–0.82; PBIAS = −8.10–−8.20%; RSR = 0.4–0.42). Subsequently, the impact of climate change in both basins was evaluated by comparing future flows with those of the historical period. In the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, by the end of the 2071–2100 period, the flows of the Upper Mula stream and the ephemeral Algeciras stream will have decreased by between 46.3% and 52.4% and between 46.6% and 55.8%, respectively.