Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over the Next Months
Metadatos
Afficher la notice complèteEditorial
MDPI
Materia
COVID-19 Mathematical models Transmission dynamics Vaccination expectations Hospital’s resources COVID waves
Date
2021Referencia bibliográfica
Garrido, J.M.; Martínez-Rodríguez, D.; Rodríguez-Serrano, F.; Sferle, S.-M.; Villanueva, R.-J. Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over Next Months. Mathematics 2021, 9, 1132. https:// doi.org/10.3390/math9101132
Patrocinador
Spanish Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO); Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI); Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER UE) grant MTM2017-89664-P; European Union through the Operational Program of the [European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)/European Social Fund (ESF)] of the Valencian Community 2014–2020; Ramón Areces Foundation, Madrid, Spain (CIVP18A3920).Résumé
Mathematical models have been remarkable tools for knowing in advance the appropriate time to enforce population restrictions and distribute hospital resources. Here, we present a
mathematical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to study the transmission
dynamics of COVID-19 in Granada, Spain, taking into account the uncertainty of the phenomenon.
In the model, the patients moving throughout the hospital’s departments (intra-hospitalary circuit)
are considered in order to help to optimize the use of a hospital’s resources in the future. Two
main seasons, September–April (autumn-winter) and May–August (summer), where the hospital
pressure is significantly different, have been included. The model is calibrated and validated with
data obtained from the hospitals in Granada. Possible future scenarios have been simulated. The
model is able to capture the history of the pandemic in Granada. It provides predictions about the
intra-hospitalary COVID-19 circuit over time and shows that the number of infected is expected to
decline continuously from May without an increase next autumn–winter if population measures
continue to be satisfied. The model strongly suggests that the number of infected cases will reduce
rapidly with aggressive vaccination policies. The proposed study is being used in Granada to design
public health policies and perform wise re-distribution of hospital resources in advance.