Storm characterization and simulation for damage evolution models of maritime structures
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Threshold selectionStorm characterizationStorm evolutionNon-stationary mixture probability modelsDamage progression
Lira-Loarca, A., Cobos, M., Losada, M. Á., & Baquerizo, A. (2020). Storm characterization and simulation for damage evolution models of maritime structures. Coastal Engineering, 156, 103620.
SponsorshipThis work was performed within the framework of the project AQUACLEW and the research group TEP-209 (Junta de Andalucía). Project AQUACLEW is part of ERA4CS, and ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). MC wishes to acknowledge the funding provided by the Campus of International Excellence of the Sea (Cei-MAR). The authors would like to thank the MeteOcean group at the University of Genoa for providing the hindcast wave dataset used in this study (http://www3.di cca.unige.it/meteocean/hindcast.html).
This paper presents a new approach to statistically characterize and simulate the wave climate under storm conditions. The methodology includes the joint selection of the parameters that identify storm events (significant wave height threshold, minimum storm duration and minimum interarrival time between consecutive storms) by means of hypothesis testing on the distribution functions of the number of storm events and the elapsing time between storms, providing an improved characterization of the parameters that define storm events. The main wave variables and their temporal dependence are characterized by non-stationary mixture distribution functions and a vector autoregressive model. This allows to adequately reproduce the random temporal evolution of storm events, crucial for the study of damage progression in maritime structures without the use of predefined geometries. The long-term time series of storm events and calm periods is obtained using copula functions which analyze the joint dependence of storm duration and interarrival time for separate climate intervals. The model is applied to hindcast data at a location of the Mediterranean sea close to the Granada coast in Spain to show its ability to reproduce wave storm conditions accounting for the time variability of the storminess. An example of application, using a large number of simulations and a damage progression model in a maritime structure, is presented.