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A novel approach for evaluating contact patterns and risk mitigation strategies for COVID-19 in English primary schools with application of structured expert judgement
dc.contributor.author | Sparks, R. S. J. | |
dc.contributor.author | Scarrow, Jane Hannah | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-03-04T13:29:37Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-03-04T13:29:37Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021-01-27 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Sparks R. S. J., Aspinall W. P., Brooks-Pollock E., Cooke R. M., Danon L., Barclay J., Scarrow J. H. and Cox J. 2021A novel approach for evaluating contact patterns and risk mitigation strategies for COVID-19 in English primary schools with application of structured expert judgementR. Soc. open sci.8201566201566 [http://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201566] | es_ES |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10481/66908 | |
dc.description | Electronic supplementary material is available online at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c. 5280319. | es_ES |
dc.description | The support of the Royal Society education policy unit and the RAMP initiative for COVID-19 are acknowledged. Funding to L.D. and E.B.-P. from MRC grants MR/V038613/1 and MC-PC-19067 is acknowledged. | es_ES |
dc.description.abstract | Personal contacts drive COVID-19 infections. After being closed (23 March 2020) UK primary schools partially re-opened on 1 June 2020 with social distancing and new risk mitigation strategies. We conducted a structured expert elicitation of teachers to quantify primary school contact patterns and how contact rates changed upon re-opening with risk mitigation measures in place. These rates, with uncertainties, were determined using a performance-based algorithm. We report mean number of contacts per day for four cohorts within schools, with associated 90% confidence ranges. Prior to lockdown, younger children (Reception and Year 1) made 15 contacts per day [range 8.35] within school, older children (Year 6) 18 contacts [range 5.55], teaching staff 25 contacts [range 4.55] and non-classroom staff 11 contacts [range 2.27]. After re-opening, the mean number of contacts was reduced by 53% for young children, 62% for older children, 60% for classroom staff and 64% for other staff. Contacts between teaching and non-teaching staff reduced by 80%. The distributions of contacts per person are asymmetric with heavy tail reflecting a few individuals with high contact numbers. Questions on risk mitigation and supplementary structured interviews elucidated how new measures reduced daily contacts in-school and contribute to infection risk reduction. | es_ES |
dc.description.sponsorship | Royal Society education policy unit | es_ES |
dc.description.sponsorship | RAMP initiative for COVID-19 | es_ES |
dc.description.sponsorship | UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council UK (MRC) MR/V038613/1 MC-PC-19067 | es_ES |
dc.language.iso | eng | es_ES |
dc.publisher | The Royal Society Publishing | es_ES |
dc.rights | Atribución 3.0 España | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ | * |
dc.subject | Schools | es_ES |
dc.subject | COVID-19 | es_ES |
dc.subject | Expert judgement | es_ES |
dc.subject | Transmission | es_ES |
dc.title | A novel approach for evaluating contact patterns and risk mitigation strategies for COVID-19 in English primary schools with application of structured expert judgement | es_ES |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | es_ES |
dc.rights.accessRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | es_ES |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1098/rsos.201566 | |
dc.type.hasVersion | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | es_ES |