Are the Modern Drought Management Plans Modern Enough? The Guadalquivir River Basin Case in Spain

Abstract

Droughts and water scarcity events are predicted to be more frequent and intense in the future, especially in Mediterranean countries. However, are the most recent drought management plans (DMPs) built on the latest technical, engineering, and scientific knowledge, as well as the learning experiences from managing historical droughts? The most significant challenge that surfaces, when a new drought event strikes, is the difficulty in predicting its duration (which can vary from months to years), the severity (or degree of affection to water resources), and the potential environmental, economic, and social impacts. Hence, there is an importance of integrating reliable forecasting and modeling tools in the development of modern DMPs, so the potential risk can be assessed under a range of possible drought scenarios. This will ensure that the proposed measures and actions of the DMP are sufficiently robust and proportionate to the drought and water scarcity situation. This paper provides a critical assessment of the core technical concepts and principles to be taken into consideration when developing the methodological and operational framework of a DMP. The case of study chosen is the Guadalquivir River Basin in southern Spain, which presents one of the most complex and paradigmatic cases in this regard. This region suffers recurrent episodes of drought and water scarcity, together with fierce competition among water users. Recently, a new strategic DMP has been approved and adopted in December 2018. The implications of applying the DMP in practice during the drought have been also evaluated. This study draws important lessons learned that could be applied in other areas suffering from water scarcity and droughts.