The performance of planning hypotheses about urban-transport futures: the Light Rail Transit in Granada

Abstract

Researchers and practitioners on transport and urban planning have seen in the art of scenario-making a key to pursue a renewed visionary role, as well as an instrument for the exploration of alternative urban transport images. Developers of scenario methods usually depart from the idea that scenarios are underused. In turn, the approach of the present research is founded on the premise that planning is a forward-looking practice that already embodies elements performing as scenarios (here called planning future hypothesis).This paper explores the inception of potential future scenarios related to the Light Rail Transit (LRT) project in Granada (Spain). The research was based on a review of planning documents from the Metropolitan Area. Different arguments were collected, related to five planning hypotheses about the LRT system, and interpreted according to three criteria of scenario performance: consistency, plausibility and coherence. The results exemplify the diversity of representations and mechanism with which future can be built.