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dc.contributor.authorBarzola Monteses, Julio
dc.contributor.authorMite León, Mónica
dc.contributor.authorEspinoza Andaluz, Mayken
dc.contributor.authorGómez Romero, Juan
dc.contributor.authorFajardo Contreras, Waldo
dc.identifier.citationBarzola-Monteses, J., Mite-León, M., Espinoza-Andaluz, M., Gómez-Romero, J., & Fajardo, W. (2019). Time Series Analysis for Predicting Hydroelectric Power Production: The Ecuador Case. Sustainability, 11(23), 6539.es_ES
dc.description.abstractElectrical generation in Ecuador mainly comes from hydroelectric and thermo-fossil sources, with the former amounting to almost half of the national production. Even though hydroelectric power sources are highly stable, there is a threat of droughts and floods affecting Ecuadorian water reservoirs and producing electrical faults, as highlighted by the 2009 Ecuador electricity crisis. Therefore, predicting the behavior of the hydroelectric system is crucial to develop appropriate planning strategies and a good starting point for energy policy decisions. In this paper, we developed a time series predictive model of hydroelectric power production in Ecuador. To this aim, we used production and precipitation data from 2000 to 2015 and compared the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) and the Box-Tiao (ARIMAX) regression methods. The results showed that the best model is the ARIMAX (1,1,1) (1,0,0)12, which considers an exogenous variable precipitation in the Napo River basin and can accurately predict monthly production values up to a year in advance. This model can provide valuable insights to Ecuadorian energy managers and policymakers.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work has been funded by the Universidad de Guayaquil through the grant number FCI-015-2019. This work has been also supported by ESPOL, grant number FIMCP-CERA-05-2017.es_ES
dc.rightsAtribución 3.0 España*
dc.subjectHydroelectric power plants es_ES
dc.subjectProduction predictiones_ES
dc.subjectFunctional time series analysises_ES
dc.titleTime Series Analysis for Predicting Hydroelectric Power Production: The Ecuador Casees_ES

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Atribución 3.0 España
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Atribución 3.0 España