Assessing the effects of sea level rise on coastal wetlands and urban infrastructure using the SLAMM model: A case study in the Valdivia River, Chile

Abstract

Climate change poses a critical threat to coastal wetlands and urban infrastructure, especially in the Valdivia River basin in Chile. This study uses the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to project changes in land use and areas prone to flooding due to sea level rise. The results indicate that a loss of approximately 15 km2 of irregularly flooded wetlands is expected, which will be transformed into regularly flooded wetlands. This will increase flood risk to adjacent communities, with 12.06% of stormwater discharge points located in flood-prone areas by 2030, increasing to 15.51% by 2050 and 18.97% by 2100. In addition, it is estimated that 64% of existing discharge points will be obstructed by wetland expansion, underscoring the need for integrated water management and a proactive approach to urban planning. The economic repercussions include increased costs for flood mitigation and infrastructure repairs, while social impacts may manifest as heightened vulnerability for local populations, particularly those in low-income areas. The study underscores the need for significant investment in adaptive measures to protect both the environment and community well-being. This research not only enhances understanding of climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems but also provides essential tools for decision-making in managing urban infrastructure amidst future risk scenarios.