Defining socio-climate-energy zones based on photovoltaic potential to support new standards for eliminating energy poverty in Chile

Abstract

Countries are facing contexts of high climatic and socio-spatial heterogeneity, where integrated territorial diagnostics to address energy poverty are essential. This research aims to evaluate the extent to which the current thermal zoning in Chile can discriminate among variables related to residential electricity consumption, photovoltaic generation potential, and poverty at the communal scale. Therefore, a replicable methodology has been designed and tested to build a socio-climate-energy zoning. 343 communes have been analyzed, combining information on residential electricity consumption, annual photovoltaic generation potential, and the number of people in poverty to examine their behavior according to the current thermal zoning. The contrast between zones is evaluated by descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and difference tests. The results show that current thermal zoning, by itself, discriminates among the socio-energy variables considered to a limited extent, including variables such as annual electricity consumption. Subsequently, the generation/consumption relationship is stratified into three ranges, and poverty is stratified into quartiles, creating 12 categories. This new classification allows building socio-climate-energy zoning as an alternative to the current thermal zoning, enabling the identification of vulnerable areas, the planning of photovoltaic energy programs, and, in general, the prioritization of interventions that integrate social vulnerability with local electricity generation and consumption. The association between the two dimensions is contrasted using Pearson's Chi-square test, and the results are represented cartographically. Overall, the proposed framework provides an operational tool for territorial energy planning and the design of differentiated policies, with the potential to adapt to other regions of the Global South.