Unequal rewards to decarbonisation: A diff-in-diffs approach to measuring housing costs across tenures

Abstract

The large-scale transformation of the housing stock towards net-zero energy has already mobilised substantial public and private investment and is set to accelerate in the coming decades. While many studies examine the effects of decarbonisation on rents and prices, less is known about cost-reducing benefits for households, how these gains are distributed across tenures and whether they ultimately improve affordability. These distributional questions are particularly salient in Western Europe where persistent unaffordability cleavages between homeowners and renters exist. This article investigates the impact of decarbonisation on housing costs across tenures. The analysis draws on registry data from Dutch households between 2018 and 2023, employing heating degree day-adjusted gas consumption as a proxy for decarbonisation. To estimate the impact of decarbonisation on costs, the article combines a matching procedure with a staggered diff-in-diffs design, followed by a series of distributional measures. Across these indicators, outright owners exhibit the largest relative reductions in housing costs, mortgagors the largest absolute reductions, private renters the smallest reductions, and social renters are in an intermediate position. These findings, when understood within the context of current decarbonisation policies, comprising subsidies for homeowners and cost-neutrality measures for tenants, point to the entrenchment of current unaffordability cleavages.