Optimizing dispatch strategies for CSP plants: A Monte Carlo simulation approach to maximize annual revenue in Chile's renewable energy sector

Abstract

As Chile solidifies its position as a global leader in renewable energy, the intermittent and variable nature of solar and wind increasingly challenges grid stability. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) with Thermal Energy Storage (TES) provides dispatchable, high-value electricity that can mitigate curtailment and enhance grid reliability. This study uses a Monte Carlo framework to evaluate 1,000,000 potential dispatch strategies for a 100 MW CSP facility in the Atacama, leveraging historical marginal cost data from the Cardones line (May 2023–April 2024). The best dispatch strategy achieves $60,103,253 in annual revenue, surpassing most scenarios. Specifically, the capacity factor rises 94.11% above average, while revenue increases 106.8%. Stable output under varying solar conditions underscores CSP’s ability to sustain steady generation, support higher renewable penetration, and strengthen the energy supply. Granting CSP plants greater autonomy in dispatch decisions can enhance profitability and grid resilience. By leveraging data-driven optimization, CSP technology could play a pivotal role in meeting Chile’s ambitious renewable goals, reducing curtailment, and bolstering overall system efficiency.