Green growth in the mirror of history

Abstract

‘Green growth’ is a cornerstone of global sustainability debates and policy agenda. Although there is no consensus definition, it is commonly associated with the absolute decoupling of economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions, which is indeed occurring in high-income countries today. Nevertheless, green growth thus defined could be insufficient to reach global mitigation goals. Here we examine long-term historical data and develop a framework to identify global, regional, and national patterns of decoupling between economic output and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We show that 60% of cumulative fossil-fuel CO2 reduction during 1820–2022 took place under recessions rather than during instances of green growth, with just 5 global crises accounting for about 40%. While in the last 50 years national episodes of green growth became more common, they have not been sustained over time. Crucially, historical episodes compatible with sustained growth and the required emission reductions are anecdotal.