Addressing wind turbines obsolescence and waste estimation: A geographical approach to decision-making

Abstract

The imminent end-of-life of many installed wind turbines, combined with the need to meet the renewable energy targets set by the EU, presents critical challenges, such as assessing the obsolescence of installations and quantifying resulting waste. This study develops and applies a streamlined and transferable methodology to address these challenges, using the region of Andalusia (southern Spain) as a case study. The results indicate that, depending on assumed lifespans (20, 25 or 30 years), 90.87%, 25.29% or 9.97% of wind turbines in Andalusia will become obsolescence by 2030, and that nearly all installations are expected to cease operations by 2050. This article also maps turbines distribution, estimates waste generation and compares environmentally sensitive areas suitable for wind farms with those already occupied, aiming to assist in informed decision-making by stakeholders. An estimated 464,284 tonnes of waste will be generated, of which 63,742 tonnes correspond to rotor components. The proposed methodology offers a replicable approach for quantifying and managing turbine lifespan and associated waste generation, supporting informed decision-making processes and adaptability to other territorial contexts. Overall, the results underscore the urgency of incorporating obsolescence, waste generation and territorial sensitivity into energy planning to advance toward a just, and environmentally responsible transition.