GESI - Informeshttps://hdl.handle.net/10481/383832024-03-28T21:31:48Z2024-03-28T21:31:48ZSorpresas estratégicas e Inteligencia de alerta tempranaJordán Enamorado, Javier Jesúshttps://hdl.handle.net/10481/654512021-06-15T13:35:24ZSorpresas estratégicas e Inteligencia de alerta temprana
Jordán Enamorado, Javier Jesús
Resumen: Este documento analiza las causas de las sorpresas estratégicas en materia de Defensa agrupadas en cuatro conjuntos de factores: limitaciones metodológicas, sesgos cognitivos, patologías en las organizaciones responsables de generar inteligencia de alerta temprana, y escasa receptividad política que conduce a un déficit de respuesta.
Political and social trends in the future of global security. A meta-study on official perspectives in Europe and North AmericaJordán Enamorado, Javier Jesúshttps://hdl.handle.net/10481/494102021-06-24T11:16:44ZPolitical and social trends in the future of global security. A meta-study on official perspectives in Europe and North America
Jordán Enamorado, Javier Jesús
The present paper provides a meta-study of security and defence foresight documents by the Atlantic Alliance, European Union and various official bodies linked to the Defence Ministries of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and United States. It focuses on the political and social trends impacting on defence and military issues. In global terms, the following can be discerned: rivalry among major powers, with armed conflict between some not ruled out entirely; armed non-state actors strengthened by new technologies; global competition for natural resources; extensive demographic imbalances and migration flows; global risks associated with fragile states. In terms of European internal policy, the following trends are identified: population ageing and the challenges associated with immigrant integration; empowerment of interest-based and identity networks. The paper begins by familiarising readers with the characteristics of foresight documents and the methodologies used in their preparation.
Un modelo de análisis geopolítico para el estudio de las relaciones internacionalesJordán Enamorado, Javier Jesúshttps://hdl.handle.net/10481/494092021-06-24T11:16:45ZUn modelo de análisis geopolítico para el estudio de las relaciones internacionales
Jordán Enamorado, Javier Jesús
Este documento ofrece un modelo de análisis geopolítico para facilitar el estudio de las relaciones internacionales. Pone en relación los procesos políticos con las variables geográficas. El modelo asume que todo Estado debe atender cuatro imperativos geopolíticos: 1) alcanzar y mantener un nivel adecuado de poder relativo, 2) mantener la unidad de su territorio, 3) proteger las fronteras, y 4) asegurar las conexiones externas. Estos imperativos condicionan –pero no determinan– su acción exterior. El documento ofrece múltiples ejemplos históricos y actuales donde se observa la fuerza de cada uno de esos imperativos en el hacer político; This document offers a geopolitical analytical model to facilitate the study of international relations. The model incorporates the interactions between geographical settings and political processes. The model assumes that every state must address four geopolitical imperatives: 1) to achieve and maintain an adequate level of relative power, 2) to maintain the unity of its territory, 3) to protect the borders, and 4) to ensure external connections. These imperatives condition, although they do not determine states’ foreign policy. The document offers multiple historical and current examples where the impulse of each of these imperatives in the political process is observed.