@misc{10481/93583,
year = {2024},
month = {6},
url = {https://hdl.handle.net/10481/93583},
abstract = {Aim: Climate change is altering habitat suitability for many organisms and modifying
species ranges at a global scale. Here we explored the impact of climate change on
112 pine species (Pinus), fundamental elements of Northern terrestrial ecosystems.
Location: Global.
Methods: We applied a novel methodology for species distribution modelling that
considers uncertainty in climatic projections and taxon sampling, and incorporates
elements of species' recent evolutionary history. We based our niche calculations on
climate and soil data and computed projections across multiple algorithms and IPCC
scenarios, which were ensembled into one single suitability map. We then used phylogenetic
methods to account for recent evolution in climatic requirements by estimating
the evolution of climatic niche. Edaphoclimatic and evolutionary analyses were
then combined to calibrate the projections in areas showing high uncertainty. We
validated our models using naturalized occurrences of invasive pine species.
Results: Our models predicted that by 2070, most pine species (58%) might face important
reductions of habitat suitability, potentially leading to range losses and a decrease
in species richness, particularly in some regions such as the Mediterranean
Basin and South North America, albeit migration might mitigate these shifts in some
cases. In contrast, our projections showed increased habitat suitability for approx. 20%
of species, which may undergo range expansions under climate change. Moreover, the
consideration of recent evolutionary trends modified projected scenarios, decreasing
range loss and increasing range expansion for some species. The independent validation
endorsed our models for many species and the influence of recent evolution in
some cases.
Conclusions: We predict that climate change will impose drastic changes in pine distribution
and diversity across biogeographical regions, but the magnitude and direction
of change will vary significantly across regions and taxa. Species-level
responses
are likely to be influenced by regional conditions and the recent evolutionary history
of each taxon.},
organization = {Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness
of Spain, Grant/Award Number:
CGL2013-47558-
P
and CGL2016-79950-
R},
organization = {Spanish Ministry of Education,
Culture and Sport, Grant/Award Number:
FPU13/03410},
organization = {Swiss SNF, Grant/Award
Number: #31003A_149508/1},
organization = {Consejería
de Universidad, Investigación e Innovación
of the Junta de Andalucía, Grant/Award
Number: QUAL21-011},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
keywords = {climate change},
keywords = {data uncertainty},
keywords = {distribution shifts},
title = {Climate change is predicted to impact the global distribution and richness of pines (genus Pinus) by 2070},
doi = {10.1111/ddi.13849},
author = {Salazar-Tortosa, Diego F. and Saladin, Bianca and Castro Gutiérrez, Jorge and Rubio de Casas, Rafael Francisco},
}