@misc{10481/93230,
year = {2024},
month = {3},
url = {https://hdl.handle.net/10481/93230},
abstract = {The electricity industry is heavily implementing intelligent
control systems to improve reliability, availability, security,
and efficiency. This implementation needs technological advancements,
the development of standards and regulations, as well as
testing and planning.Load forecasting and management are critical
for reducing demand volatility and improving the market mechanism
that connects generators, distributors, and retailers. During
policy implementations or external interventions, it is necessary to
analyse the uncertainty of their impact on the electricity demand
to enable a more accurate response of the system to fluctuating
demand. This article analyses the uncertainties of external intervention
impacts on electricity demand. It implements a framework
that combines probabilistic and global forecasting models using a
deep learning approach to estimate the causal impact distribution
of an intervention. The causal effect is assessed by predicting the
counterfactual distribution outcome for the affected instances and
then contrasting it to the real outcomes.We consider the impact of
Covid-19 lockdowns on energy usage as a case study to evaluate the
non-uniform effect of this intervention on the electricity demand
distribution. We could show that during the initial lockdowns in
Australia and some European countries, there was often a more
significant decrease in the troughs than in the peaks,while themean
remained almost unaffected.},
organization = {Australian Research Council  Grant DE190100045},
organization = {Monash University Graduate Research funding and MASSIVE, Australia TPWRS-01592-2022},
publisher = {IEEE},
keywords = {Load forecasting},
keywords = {Uncertainty},
keywords = {Causal effect},
title = {Causal Effect Estimation With Global Probabilistic Forecasting: A Case Study of the Impact of Covid-19 Lockdowns on Energy Demand},
doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2209.08885},
author = {Nandipura Prasanna, Ankitha and Grecov, Priscila and Dieyu Weng, Angela and Bergmeir, Christoph Norbert},
}