@misc{10481/73539,
year = {2022},
month = {1},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10481/73539},
abstract = {In this article, we present our own construction process model consisting of 16 stages and
eight phases, which is particularly applicable to large investment projects. In the context of each
project phase, we examine how the appropriate way of scheduling construction processes affects the
problem of the risk of prolonging individual phases and the whole project, as well as of not meeting
deadlines (which is one of the main problems faced by management practitioners in the construction
industry). There are many methods for assessing risk in this context, but they tend to be overly
complex and rarely used by construction practitioners. On the other hand, the risks associated with
potential schedule delays can be considered holistically. One tool that can serve this purpose is the
combined Monte Carlo simulation and Time-at-Risk (TaR) approach, which originates from the world
of finance. We show how the implementation of the process model (individual phases) and the whole
project can be considered in the context of the covariance matrix between all its phases and how
changes in the arrangement of these phases can affect the risk of time extension of the whole project.
Our study is based on simulation data for a large development project (Fort Bema/Parkowo-Le´sne
housing estate complex) in Bemowo, a district ofWarsaw, carried out between 1999 and 2012. The
entire investment project involved the construction of almost 120,000 m2 of floor space.},
publisher = {MDPI},
keywords = {Time schedules},
keywords = {Project risk},
keywords = {Construction project management},
keywords = {Time-at-Risk (TaR)},
keywords = {Investment-construction process model},
keywords = {Monte Carlo simulation},
title = {Project Risk in the Context of Construction Schedules—Combined Monte Carlo Simulation and Time at Risk (TaR) Approach: Insights from the Fort Bema Housing Estate Complex},
doi = {10.3390/app12031044},
author = {Sobieraj, Janusz and Metelski, Dominik Igor},
}