@misc{10481/70317,
year = {2021},
month = {6},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10481/70317},
abstract = {The first known case of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in December 2019. It has spread
worldwide, leading to an ongoing pandemic, imposed restrictions and costs to many countries. Predicting the
number of new cases and deaths during this period can be a useful step in predicting the costs and facilities
required in the future. The purpose of this study is to predict new cases and deaths rate one, three and seven-day
ahead during the next 100 days. The motivation for predicting every n days (instead of just every day) is the
investigation of the possibility of computational cost reduction and still achieving reasonable performance. Such
a scenario may be encountered in real-time forecasting of time series. Six different deep learning methods are
examined on the data adopted from the WHO website. Three methods are LSTM, Convolutional LSTM, and GRU.
The bidirectional extension is then considered for each method to forecast the rate of new cases and new deaths
in Australia and Iran countries.
This study is novel as it carries out a comprehensive evaluation of the aforementioned three deep learning
methods and their bidirectional extensions to perform prediction on COVID-19 new cases and new death rate
time series. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that Bi-GRU and Bi-Conv-LSTM models are used for
prediction on COVID-19 new cases and new deaths time series. The evaluation of the methods is presented in the form of graphs and Friedman statistical test. The results show that the bidirectional models have lower errors
than other models. A several error evaluation metrics are presented to compare all models, and finally, the
superiority of bidirectional methods is determined. This research could be useful for organisations working
against COVID-19 and determining their long-term plans.},
organization = {European Commission	CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/15_003/0000456},
organization = {Czech Republic Operational Programme Research and Development, Education, Priority 1: Strengthening capacity for quality research, based on the SPIL project},
organization = {Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion (Espana) /FEDER	RTI2018-098913-B100},
organization = {Junta de Andalucia},
organization = {European Commission	CV20-45250	
A-TIC-080-UGR18},
publisher = {Elsevier},
keywords = {Long Short Term Memory (LSTM)},
keywords = {Convolutional Long Short Term Memory (Conv-LSTM)},
keywords = {Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)},
keywords = {Bidirectional},
keywords = {New Cases of COVID-19},
keywords = {New Deaths of COVID-19},
keywords = {COVID-19 prediction},
keywords = {Deep learning},
keywords = {Machine learning},
title = {Time series forecasting of new cases and new deaths rate for COVID-19 using deep learning methods},
doi = {10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104495},
author = {Ayoobi, Nooshin and Gorriz Sáez, Juan Manuel},
}