@misc{10481/69996,
year = {2021},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10481/69996},
abstract = {Future drought-hazard assessments using standardized indices depend on the period
used to calibrate the probability distributions. This appears to be particularly important in a changing climate with significant trends in drought-related variables. This study explores the effect of
using different approaches to project droughts, with a focus on changes in drought characteristics
(frequency, duration, time spent in drought, and spatial extent), estimated with a calibration period
covering recent past and future conditions (self-calibrated indices), and another one that only applies recent-past records (relative indices). The analysis focused on the Iberian Peninsula (IP), a hotspot region where climate projections indicate significant changes by the end of this century. To do
this, a EURO-CORDEX multi-model ensemble under RCP8.5 was used to calculate the Standardized
Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at both 3- and 12-month timescales. The results suggest that projections of drought characteristics strongly depend on the period used to calibrate the
SPEI, particularly at a 12-month timescale. Overall, differences were larger for the near future when
relative indices indicated more severe droughts. For the distant future, changes were more similar,
although self-calibrated indices revealed more frequent and longer-lasting droughts and the relative ones a drought worsening associated with extremely prolonged drought events.},
organization = {FEDER/Junta de Andalucía-Ministry of Economy and
Knowledge/Project [B-RNM-336-UGR18]},
organization = {Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and
Competitiveness},
organization = {European Community Funds (FEDER)
[CGL2017-89836-R]},
organization = {OGS and CINECA under HPC-TRES
program award number 2020-02},
publisher = {MDPI},
keywords = {Drought indices},
keywords = {Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index},
keywords = {Regionalized projections},
keywords = {EURO-CORDEX},
keywords = {Iberian Peninsula},
keywords = {Climate change},
title = {Assessing Future Drought Conditions over the Iberian Peninsula: The Impact of Using Different Periods to Compute the SPEI},
doi = {10.3390/atmos12080980},
author = {García Valdecasas Ojeda, Matilde María del Valle and Romero Jiménez, Emilio and Rosa Cánovas, Juan José and Yeste, Patricio and Castro Díez, Yolanda and Esteban Parra, María Jesús and Vicente Serrano, Sergio M. and Gámiz Fortís, Sonia Raquel},
}