@misc{10481/61670,
year = {2019},
month = {6},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10481/61670},
abstract = {The cogency of evaluation models able to predict future trends and to monitor the consequences
of scenarios different from those initially expected has been determining a growing scientific interest for
the development of financial sustainability methods. With reference to quarterly time series collected
for the metropolitan area of five Spanish cities, in this research an innovative methodology has been
implemented, in order to make explicit, for each case study, the main functional relationships between
the housing prices and the socio-economic factors. The models obtained are characterized by both
high statistical performance and compliance with the expected market phenomena, highlighting the
decisive role in the housing price formation of the factors that indirectly represent the population’s
income capacity (market rents, unemployment level, mortgages). Then, an empirical procedure for
the construction of the future property value trends has been developed. The results point out the
forecasting and monitoring potentialities of the methodology used, as a fundamental decision support
tool in the urban planning policies of the local administrations, interested in anticipating and checking
future housing bubbles through appropriate economic policies, and for private operators, in the phases
of selection of the most attractive territorial areas for new property realizations.},
publisher = {MDPI},
keywords = {Housing prices},
keywords = {Housing bubbles},
keywords = {Market rents},
keywords = {Unemployment level},
keywords = {Number of mortgages},
title = {Multivariate Dynamic Analysis and Forecasting Models of Future Property Bubbles: Empirical Applications to the Housing Markets of Spanish Metropolitan Cities},
doi = {10.3390/su11133575},
author = {Tajani, Francesco and Morano, Pierluigi and Sáez Pérez, María Paz and Di Liddo, Felicia and Locurcio, Marco},
}