The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: a simulation of the impact on EU exports Blanes, José Vicente Milgram Baleix, Juliette Liberalisation EU Morocco Free Trade Area Tariff Immigration Gravity equation We analyse the effect due of the next FTA between Morocco and the EU on bilateral Moroccan imports. As our main contribution to the existing literature, we include in our gravity equation tariff data at the industry level. This allows to better estimate trade determinants and also makes possible to perform simulations of the tariff dismantling taking into account its different path for each industry and year. A complete tariff dismantling will double the average yearly trade growth observed in the years just before the transition period to the FTA begun. The average effect follows the tariff reduction schedule being greater at the beginning and at the end of the transition period. The effect is positive for all EU Member States but exports growth to Morocco is greater for Portugal, Greece, Slovakia, Lithuania and Spain and lower for Germany, Denmark, Finland, France and Sweden. By industries, the faster growth are predicted for Leather and leather products, Wood and wood products, Textiles and textile products, Rubber and plastic products and Pulp, paper an paper products and publishing and printing. Finally, we also find a positive effect of Moroccan immigration in the EU on bilateral trade. 2014-04-30T11:22:01Z 2014-04-30T11:22:01Z 2006 info:eu-repo/semantics/report Blanes, J.V.; Milgram Baleix, J. The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: a simulation of the impact on EU exports. Universidad de Granada. Departamento de Teoría e Historia Económica (2006). (The Papers; 06/09). [http://hdl.handle.net/10481/31492] http://hdl.handle.net/10481/31492 eng The Papers;06/09 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 License Universidad de Granada. Departamento de Teoría e Historia Económica