Statistical analysis of spatio-temporal crime patterns: Optimization of patrolling strategies

Abstract

In Spain, the security of towns is borne by the Spanish National Police Corps (SNPC), usually sharing territory with other local security forces. The SNPC is an armed Institute of civil nature, subordinated to the Ministry of Home Affairs. Among its duties are: keeping and restoring order and public safety and to prevent the commission of criminal acts. The SNPC is one of the country's most valued institutions and is located at the global forefront in the fight against crime, with the aim of constant innovation. To improve the effectiveness of patrolling operations and increase the efficiency in the use of resources, the SNPC has started to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) comprising tools and models to assist various public security tasks. One of the main objectives of the system is the implementation of a predictive patrolling policy to increase the presence of agents in the areas where they are most needed, to reduce the probability of occurrence of crime. To this end, the author, in collaboration with professionals from the SNPC, developed a Predictive Policing tool for crime risk forecasting based on the statistical analysis of spatio-tempooral crime patterns, and an optimization model for the definition of patrolling sectors configuration, tailored to suit the requirements of the SNPC..