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Predicting biases in very highly educated samples: Numeracy and metacognition

[PDF] Ghazal_HighlyEducated.pdf (321.5Kb)
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URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10481/35297
ISSN: 1930-2975
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Autor
Ghazal, Saima; Cokely, Edward T.; García Retamero Imedio, María Del Rocío
Editorial
Society for Judgment and Decision Making
Materia
Numeracy
 
Risk literacy
 
Individual differences
 
Cognitive abilities
 
Superior decision making
 
Judgment bias
 
Metacognition
 
Confidence
 
Dual systems
 
Fecha
2014
Referencia bibliográfica
Ghazal, S.; Cokely, E.T.; García-Retamero, R. Predicting biases in very highly educated samples: Numeracy and metacognition. Judgment and Decision Making, 9(1): 15-34 (2014). [http://hdl.handle.net/10481/35297]
Resumen
We investigated the relations between numeracy and superior judgment and decision making in two large community outreach studies in Holland (n=5408). In these very highly educated samples (e.g., 30–50% held graduate degrees), the Berlin Numeracy Test was a robust predictor of financial, medical, and metacognitive task performance (i.e., lotteries, intertemporal choice, denominator neglect, and confidence judgments), independent of education, gender, age, and another numeracy assessment. Metacognitive processes partially mediated the link between numeracy and superior performance. More numerate participants performed better because they deliberated more during decision making and more accurately evaluated their judgments (e.g., less overconfidence). Results suggest that well-designed numeracy tests tend to be robust predictors of superior judgment and decision making because they simultaneously assess (1) mathematical competency and (2) metacognitive and self-regulated learning skills.
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