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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10481/33109

Title: Predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The PredictA-Spain study
Authors: Moreno-Peral, Patricia
Luna del Castillo, Juan de Dios
Marston, Louise
King, Michael
Nazareth, Irwin
Motrico, Emma
Gilde Gómez-Barragán, María Josefa
Torres González, Francisco
Montón-Franco, Carmen
Sánchez-Celaya, Marta
Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel
Vicens, Catalina
Muñoz-Bravo, Carlos
Bellón Saameño, Juan Ángel
Issue Date: 2014
Abstract: Background: There are no risk algorithms for the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care. We aimed to develop and validate internally a risk algorithm to predict the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months. Methods: A prospective cohort study with evaluations at baseline, 6 and 12 months. We measured 39 known risk factors and used multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting to build the risk algorithm. Our main outcome was generalized anxiety, panic and other non-specific anxiety syndromes as measured by the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders, Patient Health Questionnaire (PRIME-MD-PHQ). We recruited 3,564 adult primary care attendees without anxiety syndromes from 174 family physicians and 32 health centers in 6 Spanish provinces. Results: The cumulative 12-month incidence of anxiety syndromes was 12.2%. The predictA-Spain risk algorithm included the following predictors of anxiety syndromes: province; sex (female); younger age; taking medicines for anxiety, depression or stress; worse physical and mental quality of life (SF-12); dissatisfaction with paid and unpaid work; perception of financial strain; and the interactions sex*age, sex*perception of financial strain, and age*dissatisfaction with paid work. The C-index was 0.80 (95% confidence interval = 0.78–0.83) and the Hedges' g = 1.17 (95% confidence interval = 1.04–1.29). The Copas shrinkage factor was 0.98 and calibration plots showed an accurate goodness of fit. Conclusions: The predictA-Spain risk algorithm is valid to predict anxiety syndromes at 12 months. Although external validation is required, the predictA-Spain is available for use as a predictive tool in the prevention of anxiety syndromes in primary care.
Sponsorship: This study was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Health (grant FIS references: PI041980, PI041771, PI042450 and PI06/1442) and the Andalusian Council of Health (grant references: 05/403 and 06/278); as well as the Spanish Network of Primary Care Research ‘redIAPP’ (RD06/0018), the ‘Aragón group’ (RD06/0018/0020), the ‘Baleares group’ (RD07/0018/0033), and the ‘SAMSERAP group’ (RD06/0018/0039).
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLOS)
Keywords: Anxiety
Anxiety disorders
Depression
Diagnostic medicine
Forecasting
Mental health and psychiatry
Primary care
Psychological stress
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10481/33109
ISSN: 1932-6203
Citation: Moreno-Peral, M.; et al. Predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The PredictA-Spain study. Plos One, 9(3): e106370 (2014). [http://hdl.handle.net/10481/33109]
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